Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Files and their Impacts on Energy Simulations
Computer simulation programs are currently considered the main tools for performing predictions of building performance. To do so, these tools use descriptions about the building and the environment as input data, for example the city's weather information, which is inserted in the programs through weather files. However, although the high level of technological development of these programs, they also have its limitations. The simulation is a reality emulation process made up of theoretical mathematical methods, therefore, it is possible to make predictions with theses tools, but with a certain degree of uncertainty, since it deals with a reality simplifications. And the selection of the methods to weather files development is one of these uncertainties, so the research objectives were: (1) to develop weather file for the city of Viçosa-MG, presenting all the procedures, from the weather data collection in meteorological stations, to the application of the representative climatic year selection methods; (2) to evaluate the uncertainties of the representative climatic year selection methods, pointing the most reliable. Weather data, from November 2005 to December 2015, from the city of Viçosa-MG were collected. Those of this data with gaps and errors were treated, while the climatic elements not found in the data collection were calculated. In a second moment, a statistical characterization of the city 's weather was carried out and, finally, differences in the results of computational simulations caused by the use of different types of climate files were analyzed. About the last step mentioned, a weather file was developed for each of the 10 years of weather data collected from Viçosa-MG, besides others developed with traditional selection methods, used nationally and internationally, and also files developed with innovative selection methods. The results of the analyzes pointed to the Multianual_3anos method as the most reliable, with special emphasis also to the TMY3, which was the traditional method with the best results.